West Virginia Primary Macro Analysis:

Moderate Voters

West Virginia might be considered moderate as evidenced by the electorate choosing George W. Bush over Al Gore by 6.33% in 2000 and Bush over John Kerry by 12.82% in 2004, having two moderate Democratic US Senators, and with a quarter of the voters citing "Moral Values" as the most important issue according to 2004 election exit polls.

Independents Given a Voice

The Mountain State has 665,234 (56.21%) registered Democrats and 156,199 (13.20%) unaffiliated voters. For the first time in history, The West Virginia Democratic Party is allowing unaffiliated voters to vote in their party's primary. Whites makeup 95.99% of the population and African Americans consist of 3.56% of the total according to the 2005 census.

Primary Day: May 13

The primaries will be held on May 13, 2008. Polls will open at 6:30 am and close at 7:30 pm E.T. Between April 23 and May 10, the state offers in-person early voting.

Democratic Delegates

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will compete for 28 pledged delegates in West Virginia. The state also has 10 Superdelegates, with half not currently endorsing either candidate

Clinton leads the Superdelegate count with 3 compared to Barack Obama's 2.

The Democratic Governor, Joe Manchin, and the Senior Senator, Robert Byrd, have no plans to endorse either candidate until after the primary.

Sparse Data, Clinton Ahead, Rockefeller-Rahall Factor

West Virginia polling is minimal. However, the most recent, conducted on March 3, shows Clinton ahead by 28 points increasing her margin by 7 from a February survey.

Obama has two powerful assets, Senator Jay Rockefeller and US Representative Nick Rahall, that could be used to sway voters to the Illinois Senator's side.

Related Links:

Register Herald: Democrats to let independents vote in primary
Herald Mail, April 26, 2008:Manchin says he won't endorse Clinton or Obama before primary

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